Title: Global Energy Security: Western Dependence on Gulf Oil and the Role of Regional Mediation in Middle Eastern Conflicts

Introduction

The 1973 Oil Embargo first revealed the deep interconnection between Middle Eastern stability and global energy security. In response to US military support to Israel during the Yom Kippur war against Egypt and Syria, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (now OPEC) imposed a total oil embargo against any country that had supported Israel militarily during the aforementioned conflict. This triggered a global recession and a fourfold increase in oil prices. By that time, the world economy had become heavily dependent on oil supplies from the Middle East, with nearly 85 percent of US crude oil imports coming from OPEC nations

Although the embargo was lifted by March of 1974, two following Middle Eastern crises would disrupt global energy markets. In late 1978, the Iranian Revolution resulted in a significant drop in Iranian crude oil production and average loss of 3.9 million barrels per day. Neighboring Gulf producers restored the supply gap. Then, in August 1990, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait disrupted oil exports from both countries, causing another sudden rise in crude oil prices. These crises underscored how regional instability in the Gulf can rapidly escalate into global economic crises.

This article argues that Western reliance on Gulf energy necessitates a proactive role in Middle East conflict mediation. As such, Western powers must recognize energy mediation as a core security function. As regional actors like Qatar, Egypt, and Oman increasingly assume key roles in facilitating dialogue, Western powers should pursue deeper partnerships with these mediators to ensure long-term stability in global energy markets.

Global Supply Growth and Contemporary Energy Security Challenges

Since these major disruptions, the oil market has changed in terms of global supply growth. Four countries in the Americas—the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil—have the capacity to partially offset near-term voluntary production cuts from OPEC+ nations. In 2018, the United States became the world’s greatest oil producer. Concurrently, US imports of Gulf oil have fallen by 1.29 million barrels per day (56.8 percent reduction) in the last 20 years, while imports from Canada have increased by 2.4 million barrels per day (121.8 per cent increase) over the same time period.

Although US dependence on Gulf oil has declined, the region remains critical for global energy stability and Western interests. For instance, the European Union has continued to depend heavily on Gulf oil, particularly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as alternatives to Russian energy sources. . Moreover, the region remains relevant due to its strategic export role and control over key trade routes. In early 2024, global oil prices increased amid growing tensions in the Middle East. Although the Israel-Hamas conflict did not directly impact supply, it raised fears of broader disruption. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea rerouted oil tankers, and concerns over potential escalation between Israel and Iran heightened fears about the Strait of Hormuz, which in 2022 carried roughly 21 percent of global petroleum liquids. These risks underscore the Gulf’s enduring influence on energy markets.

Middle East Mediation as an Essential Process for Global Energy Security

To prevent supply disruptions and a wider regional war, mediation has become a vital tool for Western powers. This is not only to advance peace but also to protect the stability of global energy markets, which remain vulnerable to Gulf-based conflicts and chokepoint disruptions. Because access to secure, continuous energy flows is a strategic necessity, Western powers are compelled to engage either directly or through partners when conflicts threaten this stability.

As a rule, the objective of mediation is for a neutral third party to help disputants reach an agreement on their own, rather than impose a solution. Mediators work with parties, sometimes together and sometimes separately, to assist in finding a voluntary and sustainable resolution. However, Western powers are often seen as lacking neutrality due to their strategic and political ties in the region. For example, the United States is frequently viewed as a biased actor due to its close alliance with Israel. Even when Western statements appear neutral and peace-oriented, they are often interpreted through the lens of underlying power dynamics and economic interests, particularly around energy.

This means that Western powers are pressed to act in partnership with a more diverse set of countries to achieve success in Middle East mediation. This is part of a broader trend in global peacemaking away from the United Nations and the group of traditional mediation countries—such as the United States, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway and Finland—that took the lead on international mediation for decades after World War II toward a more diverse set of peacemakers in partnership with traditional mediators. On one hand, traditional mediators are searching for trusted third parties to convey communications with the other side, as when the U.S. leans on Gulf states to communicate messages to Iran. On the other hand, states are increasingly taking on peace-facilitation roles as critical components of their foreign policy for both political prestige and national and regional security.

Looking Forward: Regional Mediation Partnerships and the Role of Qatar, Egypt, and Oman

This trend puts a new group of countries—such as Qatar, Egypt, and Oman—as a better conduit between Western powers and Middle East disputants. Qatar and Oman have confidentially mediated discussions for years between the United States and Iran that resulted in a 2023 deal involving the release of prisoners and the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue. Additionally, since the Gaza war began in 2023, Qatar and Egypt, have emerged as central mediators between Israel and Hamas.. Qatar have initiated ideas for solutions, settled deadlines for replies, reminded both sides of the gravity of the situation, and intervened when it appeared that cease-first talks were stuck. These events demonstrated that Western powers should explore partnerships with this new group of countries to safeguard global energy security.

Should Western powers seek to ensure short- and long-term security in global energy markets, the role of Gulf state energy and mediation in Middle Eastern conflicts must not go unrecognized. Despite growth in the Americas, Western powers still retain significant reliance on Gulf energy, particularly for its strategic advantages. To mitigate future conflict-related disruptions in global energy markets, Western powers should intensify mediations in partnership with countries that hold regional credentials to achieve success. This includes formalizing mediation partnerships with states like Qatar and Egypt through multilateral agreements or frameworks that go beyond ad hoc collaboration. It also requires investing in capacity-building for regional mediators to strengthen their role in early-warning systems and de-escalation diplomacy. With support and collaboration from traditional mediators, Qatar appears ready, together with other Arab countries, to consolidate its position as a mediator that seeks both regional peace and global energy security.

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Dr. Talal Abdulla Al-Emadi is the Energy Law Professor & Fourth Dean of the College of Law at Qatar University (QU). He holds a doctorate degree in law (DPhil) from the University of Oxford, where he wrote about joint ventures in the gas industry. He also holds an LLM from Harvard and an LLB from QU. The author would like to extend thanks to his RAs, Leandro Alves and Eduardo Pereira, for the research help provided, and Prof. Francis Botchway and Dr. Ezieddin Elmahjub for reading the drafts and invaluable comments.

Image Credit: Odile, Unsplash Content License, Unsplash.